Why Dumb People Think They're Smart.

written by JOSH GESSNER | The Learning Engine

Today at a Glance:

• The Dunning Kruger Effect

• Why dumb people think they’re smart.

• The 4 ‘Knowns’

Why Dumb People Think They're Smart.

The Dunning Kruger Effect:

An English Philosopher, Bertrand Russel once said:

"The problem with the world is that fools are so certain of themselves, and the wise are full of doubts."

The Point:

Dumb people think they're smart.

Smart people think they're dumb.

The Dunning Kruger Effect.

Who are the most susceptible?

• Students who claim to be 'smart', score the lowest in exams.

• Those who claim to be 'great' drivers, are the worst drivers.

• Investors who think they're 'market geniuses' during a bull market.

You get the point.

We all fall for the Dunning Kruger effect.

We overestimate our abilities:

And make stupid decisions that we regret.

But why does this happen?

Competence is broken into 4 quadrants:

1) Known knowns

2) Known Unknowns

3) Unknown Knowns

4) Unknown unknowns

I know. It's a mindf*ck.

Let's cover each one, from my perspective as a baseball player:

1) Known Knowns

This is what we know.

For example:

I know that I can throw a Slider.

2) Known Unknown

This is what we know, we don't know.

For example:

I don't know how to throw 100mph.

3) Unknown Knowns

What we know becomes so unconscious that we forget we knew it.

For example:

I know how to throw without thinking.

4) Unknown Unknowns

This is where it gets dangerous.

We don't know, what we don't know.

For example:

An amateur might know the rules of baseball:

But not what's required to become a professional.

The point:

• The incompetent feel smart, because they're learning. (known known)

• What they don't know, is how much more is required to be competent. (Unknown unknown)

We make stupid decisions when we can't recognize this.

Can we escape the Dunning Kruger Effect?

Stay within our circle of competence.

Figure out what we know:

While admitting what we don't know.

Our specific expertise is our circle of competence.

Not stupid > Being Intelligent

As Charlie Munger said,

"It's remarkable how much long-term advantage people like us have gotten by trying to be consistently not stupid, instead of trying to be very intelligent."

Focus on your competencies.

Avoid your incompetencies.

Practice Humility

Underestimating our own understanding:

Opens ourselves up to learning and growth.

This widens our circle of competence.

We all fall for the Dunning Kruger Effect when we least expect it.

Main Lesson:

We shouldn't overestimate our abilities, and always be open to learning more.

Now we know all about the Dunning Kruger Effect, and how to escape it.

Or...

Have we fallen into its trap yet again?