A phenomenon I can't stop thinking about...

written by JOSH GESSNER | The Curious Competitor

I just read about a phenomenon I can't stop thinking about...

The Availability Heuristic:

It's crazy.

We're living in the least violent time in history.

Yet - we hear about crime all the time.

It not only seems like these crimes are frequent:

It sounds like they are increasing.

Why?

We're living in the best reported time in history.

Even though crime rates are decreasing:

The chances you hear about it have dramatically increased.

The point:

We over-value recent, available information.

What you've been exposed to influences your thinking.

This is the Availability Heuristic.

And it's a problem:

Many times our memories aren't an accurate representation of reality.

We overestimate the probabilities of something happening...

Especially when it's fresh in our memory.

For example:

When I was young, I frequently watched Air Crash Investigations.

It's an amazing show that breaks down the cause of plane crashes.

But this made me petrified of going on planes.

Since I was watching all of these planes crash:

I started thinking that plane crashes were common.

Only later did I find out that planes are very safe.

Much safer than driving a car.

I started to think about this more when I reflect on my current life.

Where am I:

• Being influenced?

• Believing false information?

• Over valuing recent information?

I find this occurs with painful experiences:

Painful experiences are:

• Vivid

• Emotionally charged

• Easily accessible in our minds

They can dominate your mind, influencing your thoughts and actions.

Some examples:

Being hurt in the past can make you wary of forming new relationships.

Discomfort when trying new activities can make you less adventurous.

Humiliation or embarrassment can make you overly risk-averse.

How do you escape it?

Knowing about it isn't enough.

The people who study the availability heuristic - still struggle from it.

Still, these are my 3 favorite ways:

1) Consider the Base Rates.

Going back to planes:

I was under the impression that I had a 50/50 chance of surviving a plane ride!

But the base rate for a plane crash is 1 in 11 million.

Go back to the base rate for a true representation of reality.

2) Fall back on the trends and patterns.

Outlier events will happen, but we shouldn't make decisions around them.

Look for the trends - the longer term the better.

3) Be careful of what you consume.

What you consume becomes how you think.

If you're constantly consuming negative information like the News...

It might brainwash you.

Main Lesson:

Where are you being influenced by false, recent information?