The Prisoner’s Dilemma

written by JOSH GESSNER | The Learning Engine

Today at a Glance:

• The Prisoner’s Dilemma

• Is there an optimal strategy?

• Optimism Bias

Once you see it, you can't unsee it.

The Prisoner's Dilemma.

Let's start with the most non-obvious example:

1) Should you do the dishes, or wait for your roommate?

2) Have the hard conversation, or avoid the conflict?

3) Would you Steal, or Split the money?

The point:

Prisoner's Dilemma is everywhere.

But what is it?

You've probably heard the scenario:

Two suspects are placed in seperate interragation rooms.

• If both remain silent (cooperate), they receive a 1 year sentence.

• If one betrays (defects), while the other remains silent: The one who betrays goes free while the other gets 3 years.

• If both betray each other, each will get 2 years.

This is the classic example of Prisoners Dilemma.

Prisoner's Dilemma is a famous problem in game theory.

It's any situation where:

Someone can choose to benefit themselves, at the expense of the other.

But if they do, both are in a worse state than if they cooperated.

An example in real life:

Do the dishes or wait for your roommate?

• Cooperate, and take turns washing the dishes?

• Have a standoff and let the dishes pile up?

• Or do you suck it up and do it all yourself?

I started to think about the ways this plays out in my life:

I see how it emerges within my relationships.

• Family

• Friends

• Girlfriend

Prioritize personal interests, or compromise for the benefit of the relationship?

So I did some research on if there's an optimal strategy.

In a true Prisoner's Dilemma:

• Both parties are unable to communicate

• Only played once

There's no true optimal decision.

But most real life Prisoner's Dilemma scenarios are repeatedly played.

We constantly get into situations with:

• Colleagues

• Roommates

• Family & Friends

With this variation, there seems to be an optimal strategy:

Tit-for-Tat (with forgiveness)

1) Always cooperate in the first round.

2) From that round on, copy what the other does.

3) Occasionally cooperate even in the face of defection

Let's cover how to use this in real life:

Have an Optimism Bias.

Notice how the optimal strategy was Tit-for-Tat "with forgiveness"?

Key Lesson:

We should bias for optimism, even if it's not reciprocated.

The case for optimism:

Pessimists sound smart, Optimists get rich.

Pessimists are right 99% of the time:

Until the 1 time that it actually matters.

Optimists:

• See obstacles as an opportunity, rather than a permanent block.

• Are more resilient in the face of challenge.

• Actively seek solutions, rather than focusing on problems.

As a result - live a happier, more successful life.

As I think more about this, I realize:

I can incorporate more optimism, trust and forgiveness, during Prisoner's Dilemma situations.

Main Lesson:

Be more optimistic, trusting and forgiving because it pays off in the long term.

I guess in this scenario, Nice Guys come first.

The Prisoner's Dilemma made me reflect on my life.

I hope it sparks you to think about yours.